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Bayesian Agent-Based Population Studies

Posted 2022-07-07 15:19:09 by Admin

ISBA 2022 BAPS Talk Title Slide On 28 June - 1 July 2022, Jason Hilton and Peter Smith attended the 2022 Conference of the International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA). Among other activities, on 1 July Jason presented a paper coauthored with Martin Hinsch, entitled "Bayesian calibration of a model of forced displacement" in an invited session on Bayesian Modelling of Human Migration. The paper reported on a simulation model of migration route dynamics for Syrian migrants to Europe developed within the BAPS project. Besides reporting on uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, based on the Gaussian Process emulators describing the simulation model, by using limited data on migrant presence at locations in North Africa, parameters governing migrant decision making and information transfer were calibrated so that the simulation could replicate empirical patterns.